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TMCNet:  Indonesia will have 208.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telkomsel rising to 55.0%, according to new market research report by IEMR

[November 26, 2009]

Indonesia will have 208.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telkomsel rising to 55.0%, according to new market research report by IEMR

(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013.

"Subscriber growth remains strong in Indonesia. The industry average subscriber growth was 23.9% in 2Q.2009. We expect the subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from 135.7 million in 2008 to 208.2 million in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Telkomsel will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Indonesia. Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Telkomsel's subscriber base will increase from 61.9 million in 2008 to 114.5 million in 2013. Also, we expect that Satelindo will have 38.4 million subscribers and Excelcomindo will have 33.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013." "Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU (average revenue per user) will decline from IDR 46,733 in 2008 to IDR 34,485 in 2013. We expect that Telkomsel's ARPU level will remain the highest in the country although we expect that its monthly ARPU will still decline from IDR 59,124 in 2008 to IDR 40,335 in 2013," said Mr. Assanie.


IEMR's Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Indonesia - PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo), PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (Excelcomindo), Telkom Flexi, and StarOne. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast include: * Our model predicts that Telkomsel's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.0% in 2013. We also expect that Telekom Flexi's share of total subscribers will increase from 7.0% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2013. In contrast, we forecast that Satelindo will see its market share decline from 27.0% to 18.4% and Excelcomindo's share will decline from 19.7% to 16.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

* According to our model, Excelcomindo's EBITDA margin (EBITDA/reported revenue) will decrease from 52.6% in 2008 to 48.8% in 2013. We expect that EBITDA margins at Telkomsel and Satelindo will remain higher than Excelcomindo's at 66.8% and 50.5% respectively in 2013.

IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1329&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo) PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (Excelcomindo) Telkom Flexi StarOne Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ** PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR ** PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ** PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *** MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *** DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR * VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) * MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) * SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR ** SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR ** SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ** SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *** REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *** VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) * SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ** REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) *** VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) * SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) ** * Not available for this country forecast ** Available only for Telkomsel and Satelindo *** Available only for Telkomsel, Satelindo, and Excelcomindo ((Comments on this story may be sent to info@m2.com)) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS

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