Nearly 10 trillion text and IP mobile messages will be sent in 2013, and, for the first time, IP messages will reach about 50 percent of total messages.

The study suggests text message volume will grow by about five percent on a compound annual basis until about 2016, while some executives think that it will be a big problem for many mobile service providers.

Part of the problem is declining text messaging revenue. The longer term problem is that mobile service providers will have a tough time replacing the lost messaging revenue, and voice revenue, with data plan revenue. Gross margins are one issue and absolute revenue is the other issue.

The emergence of virtual phone numbers presents opportunities for IP-based messaging players to compete or cooperate with mobile service providers in the mobile messaging ecosystem, a study by GigaOM, commissioned by Tyntec, suggests.

But interoperability between carrier “text messaging” and IP “instant messaging” is likely, the report suggests. Such interoperability might feature different roles for carriers and over the top messaging app providers, though.

The study suggests service providers will concentrate on the delivery of messages (interoperability across all mobile network boundaries makes SMS easy to use), while app providers increasingly provide the interface to applications and operating systems so messaging is integrated into the apps and operating systems.

GigaOM researchers forecast there will be 27.7 trillion messages sent in 2016. Most of thegrowth in messaging traffic will come from IP-based messaging services, which will account for 60 percent of messaging traffic, the study suggests.

But the study also suggests the patterns will not be uniform. In the United States, for example, with a large continental-sized internal market, service providers are offering services that are affordable enough that the advantage of switching to “no incremental cost” over the top alternatives is reduced.

That is not the case in some other markets where there is significant need for routine cross-border messaging.

While IP-based OTT messaging has a number of advantages over SMS, three primary factors are keeping SMS popular. Text messages are delivered fast, to any mobile phone, whether the recipient is available or not (messages are stored and forwarded to the device when it is powered up). Instant messages require both the sender and the recipient to use the same app, and be available in real time.

Messaging will become more technology and protocol agnostic over time, the report suggests, as messages more often can be sent across text messaging and IM domains, along the lines of “Pinger (News - Alert),” which can send free text messages to any phone in the United States, for example.

Want to learn more about SIP Trunking and how to integrate it into your current UC strategy? Don’t miss the SIP Trunking- UC Seminars in South San Francisco on November 27, 2012.